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PTCOP30, climate goals and the private sector
COP30 has already begun. Even though the official date is November 10-21, the pre-event negotiations and rounds are just as important as the actual period of the Conference. André Corrêa do Lago, President of the Conference, published a letter a few days ago calling on nations to work together for the climate and bring science back to the table, at the event that marks the 20th anniversary of the Kyoto Protocol and 10 years of the Paris Agreement. The text draws attention to the need for effective technical decisions, highlights the integration between climate transition and technology and invites the international community to a global effort of cooperation among peoples to advance the decarbonization agenda.
Another highlight is the balance of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). As established in the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to submit new and more ambitious NDCs every five years, and COP30 in Belém will take place in one of these cycles. It will be the moment to assess who is really “doing their homework”. NDCs guide each country’s contribution to the goals of the Paris Agreement through voluntary commitments to reduce emissions. In practice, they transform global agreements into goals and measures, which in addition to decarbonization, can involve actions to adapt to the impacts of climate change and inform the investments needed to achieve the commitments. The Contributions also help in the search for political support to strengthen climate actions.
By the deadline agreed for submitting the goals, February 2025, only 13 of the 195 signatories of the Paris Agreement submitted new NDCs, that is, 93% of the countries did not submit any updates in the expected period, according to a survey by the Climate Observatory. This delay may be due to issues such as the weakening of climate discourse due to the delicate geopolitical context, which diverts focus from the climate agenda and makes countries more conservative in setting targets, but other factors may be involved.
The process of defining an NDC is not simple. It involves the participation of several stakeholders, multisectoral efforts and requires approval from national control bodies. In the case of Brazil, which was among the countries that submitted the NDC on time, the commitment had to be voted on in Congress, in a highly polarized context. The new Brazilian NDC was submitted early, in November 2024, and sets the goal of reducing the country’s net emissions by between 59% and 67% by 2035, compared to 2005 levels. This is equivalent to reducing between 850 million and 1.05 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent in absolute terms.
This information is not only important for governments. For the private sector, NDCs serve as a guide, indicating the processes, sectors and activities that represent the main sources of emissions and should be the focus of decarbonization actions. For example, the energy sector and industrial processes are the largest emitters globally, but in Brazil, which has a significant renewable energy matrix, the main emissions are related to land use and deforestation. Furthermore, it is up to countries to provide the necessary instruments and policies to make this transformation viable. One example is Law 15.042, enacted in 2024, which created the Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System (SBCE).
Despite all efforts, we know that global emissions are not decreasing at the speed and scale needed to prevent the worsening of the climate crisis and its social, environmental and economic impacts. For example, a report by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) indicates a 12% drop in global GDP for every 1°C increase in the Earth’s temperature. Added to this scenario, the climate models we have are already outdated due to the 1.5°C warming detected on some dates in 2024. Therefore, the tone of the Belém COP should be one of fewer promises and more actions on topics such as financing for climate action and adaptation measures. Furthermore, there are expectations about the return of the phase out of fossil fuels to the agenda, an issue that was left out of the last two editions of the COP, but was again signaled by the Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, Marina Silva, at an event in Brasília this month.
