Interview: what to expect from the climate risk agenda in 2026?

January 29, 2026 / Maria Luiza Gonçalves

With the increasingly frequent occurrence of extreme weather events in the world, the risks associated with climate change have become a more present agenda in the daily lives of companies and governments. At WayCarbon, 2025 was marked by a significant increase in demand for advisory services focused on the topic, including risk identification and management, as well as compliance with IFRS standards, which guide the disclosure of financial information related to climate and sustainability risks and opportunities.

But what are the expectations of market experts for the climate risk agenda in 2026? To answer this question, we spoke with Daniel Carvalho and Dener Ghenov, coordinators of the Climate Risks team at WayCarbon. They shared an analysis on the main points that should remain on the radar of the public and private sector throughout the year.

1. Regarding the climate risk agenda, what issues should be most relevant for the private sector and the public sector in 2026?

In the private sector, the worsening of physical risks associated with extreme events deserves attention, with impacts on the direct operation and value chain of different sectors, as evidenced by the case of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), with increased insurance costs and the loss of value of affected assets, and the regulatory risks of transition, such as the emergence and integration of globally regulated carbon markets and the mandatory integration of climate risk into the business strategy for publicly traded companies.

In the public sector, the priorities are the climate adaptation of critical infrastructures, the management of disasters associated with extreme events, with the strengthening of monitoring and warning systems, and the incorporation of climate risk into fiscal and territorial planning.

2. The year of mandatory publication of climate and sustainability information following IFRS standards (2027) is approaching. How will this impact publicly traded companies?

Publicly traded companies will be required to report climate risks and opportunities in a standardized, comparable, and auditable manner, connecting the climate agenda to corporate strategy, governance, financial performance, and long-term planning. This year, these companies will need to create or strengthen risk management mechanisms, integrating climate and sustainability risk, in order to be able to meet the imminent obligation.

Although there is some speculation about the potential impact on valuation, cost of capital and access to financing, the moment is still one of learning and consolidation of the market, with a focus on strengthening transparency, data quality and comparability between companies and sectors.

3. In addition to IFRS S1 and S2, are there any other regulatory changes planned for next year in the climate risk agenda? If so, what are they?

In addition to IFRS standards, regulations such as CSRD and ESRS in the European Union, CBAM in the EU as an import barrier for carbon-intensive products, climate reporting requirements in Asian markets and the advancement of subnational rules in the US, such as California, are advancing. In Brazil, the Central Bank should deepen quantitative requirements on climate risks for financial institutions, assessing the exposure of the credit portfolio to the risk of extreme events, for example, while the regulation of the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE) continues to be consolidated, and greater detail on its governance mechanisms is expected this year, monitoring and verification.

4. Are there sectors more exposed than others to extreme weather events in Brazil? If so, what are they and how are they exposed?

Agribusiness and the food sector are among the most exposed to droughts, heat waves, and heavy rains, with direct impacts on productivity, supply, and prices. Energy and infrastructure face heightened risks of physical damage and operational disruptions caused by extreme events. Transport and logistics are affected by interruptions in the flow of cargo and the mobility of people. The financial and insurance sector, on the other hand, suffers relevant indirect impacts, such as increased claims, delinquency, and greater economic volatility associated with extreme weather events.

5. How can companies prepare to address climate risks in 2026?

Companies must structure clear climate governance, conduct physical and transition risk assessments based on future climate scenarios, strengthen data systems and internal controls, and integrate the topic into corporate strategy and financial planning. Anticipating alignment with IFRS S1 and S2 standards is strategic, especially because 2026 is the last year of voluntary adherence, allowing you to test processes, improve the quality of information, and prepare for audits with a reasonable level of assurance.

6. And for the public sector, what actions are priorities within this agenda?

The public sector must prioritize investments in climate adaptation and resilience, strengthening critical infrastructure and reducing socio-economic vulnerabilities. It is essential to advance in strengthening policies for the prevention, preparedness, and response to disasters associated with extreme events, as well as creating incentives for private climate risk management, such as promoting reporting requirements and integrating climate change into business strategy, strengthening the taxonomy of sustainable investments, and market instruments for mitigating climate change. It is also relevant to expand access to financing, whether for climate mitigation or adaptation, and to align national development policies and strategies with this agenda.