EN 
ES
PTStatus of the energy transition in 2025 and outlook for 2026
2025 consolidated structural movements in the global energy sector. The accelerated expansion of renewables, the advance of electrification, and the growing concern for energy security have redefined the priorities of countries and companies. Although the world continues to depend on fossil fuels, with high global consumption of oil, natural gas, and coal, this dynamic currently coexists with record additions of solar and wind energy, reflecting a system in transition, but still far from a definitive inflection.
The year was also marked by geopolitical tensions and limitations in the supply of critical minerals, essential for clean technologies. According to the International Energy Agency – IEA, the moment reflects the energy sector as the central axis of countries’ economic and national security, increasing the importance of resilience, diversification and investments in infrastructure.
The electricity sector in transformation: global trends and the strategic role of Brazil
Electricity remains at the heart of the energy transition, and in 2025, the global expansion of renewables continued at a strong pace. The world’s electricity matrix is expected to have exceeded 35% of renewable participation. The competitive costs of solar and wind energy, combined with continuous public policies, have reinforced the growth of these sources, although structural challenges of integration and storage still limit their full use.
In Brazil, the electricity matrix maintained a prominent global position, with more than 80% of renewable sources. The expansion of distributed solar, wind, and biomass has further strengthened this trend. However, the country faces an increase in the scheduled cut in renewable generation, known internationally as curtailment. This phenomenon reflects limitations in transmission infrastructure, system operation, and the lack of storage mechanisms at scale. Overcoming these obstacles will be decisive to increase the use of renewables and avoid wasting clean energy.
For 2026, these movements are expected to intensify, with a greater presence of batteries, new transmission lines and regulatory adjustments aimed at a more flexible electrical system. The government also foresees important auctions in the year, including new transmission projects and capacity auctions, which bring together a large volume of registered projects. These initiatives should expand infrastructure, reinforce security of supply and facilitate the integration of more renewable sources, reducing the need for scheduled generation cuts in periods of high production.
The energy sector and sustainable fuels: evolution, limits and emerging opportunities
Despite the advance of renewables, global demand for fossil fuels remained growing in 2025. This reality reinforces that, even with the transition underway, modes of difficult electrification will continue to depend on liquid fuels. In this context, efforts dedicated to the development of sustainable fuels have grown. SAF, sustainable aviation fuel, and green diesel stand out, both considered strategic alternatives to reduce emissions in sectors with few technological options. In addition, there was an expansion of pilot projects, long-term agreements and feasibility studies, even if production is still limited in view of the costs and the need for sustainable raw materials.
In Brazil, the Fuel of the Future Law established clear guidelines to accelerate this agenda and create regulatory predictability for investments. The ProBioQAV program introduced gradual targets for SAF and new technological routes gained a legal basis, including green diesel. A highlight is biomethane, which has received specific incentives and positioned itself as a competitive alternative to decarbonize heavy transport and integrate into the natural gas market. Its potential is relevant because it combines emission reduction with solutions for agro-industrial waste.
Natural gas continued to play an important role as a source of flexibility, especially in countries with matrices in transition. Here, the sector still faces challenges related to price and dependence on existing infrastructure, but it remains essential to complement the variability of renewables while storage technologies are consolidated.
This year reinforced the coexistence between strong expansion of renewables, continued increase in global energy demand and persistent dependence on fossil fuels. Geopolitical tensions, constraints on the supply of critical minerals, and electrical integration challenges have made it clear that the energy transition is dynamic and heterogeneous.
By 2026, greater pressure is expected for efficient SAF, green diesel and biomethane routes, as well as technological and regulatory advances in carbon capture, industrial energy efficiency and digitalization of energy management.
Organizations will need to strengthen their capacity for planning and adaptation. This involves adopting robust emissions metrics, seeking greater share of renewable energy via direct contracting or self-production, investing in operational efficiency, assessing physical and regulatory risks, and developing strategies for the efficient use of sustainable fuels. Companies that adopt an integrated and anticipatory approach will be better prepared for a more competitive and demanding energy environment.
References
International Energy Agency (IEA). World Energy Outlook 2025 – Executive Summary.
Available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025/executive-summary
IEA. Critical Minerals Market Review 2025.
Assessing bottlenecks and global supply chains
Energy Research Company (EPE). Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2034).
ANEEL. Transmission Auctions 2025 and 2026. Public consultation notes and schedule of the contests.
Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). Law No. 14,700/2024 – Fuel of the Future. Regulations on SAF (ProBioQAV), green diesel, biomethane, biodiesel and anhydrous.
